On February 19, an information conference on the economic operation situation of the machinery industry for the whole year of 2015 was held in Beijing. Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, Zhao Xinmin, deputy secretary-general of the China Machinery Industry Federation and director of the Statistics and Information Department, and Yao Jie, deputy secretary-general of the Automobile Industry Association, attended the meeting. At the meeting, Vice Chairman Chen Bin reported on the development of the machinery industry in 2015 and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and pointed out when analyzing and looking forward to the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2016: 2016 The machinery industry will continue to stabilize at a low level since the fourth quarter of last year, and the full-year growth rate will be similar to that of 2015. Specifically, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is expected to be around 5.5% throughout the year, the growth rate of main business income and profits is around 3.5%, and foreign trade exports are expected to achieve positive growth.
In 2015, against the background of the complex world economic environment and increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, the machinery industry conscientiously implemented the central government’s work requirements on “stabilizing growth and adjusting structure”, working hard and moving forward under pressure. The economic growth rate of the whole industry has slowed down, but the main economic indicators still achieved positive growth; under the pressure of the market and the guidance of policies, the pace of structural adjustment has accelerated, and the transformation and upgrading efforts have been intensified.
Looking forward to 2016, there is still great downward pressure on the development of the industry, and there are still many difficulties and problems, but the confidence and determination remain. The machinery industry will fully implement the spirit of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Third, Fourth and Fifth Plenary Sessions of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, take the implementation of “Made in China 2025” as the starting point, and be market-oriented , with enterprises as the main body and innovation as the foundation, on the basis of maintaining the stable development of the machinery industry, promote the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and strive to achieve the healthy development of the industry.
1. Economic operation of the machinery industry in 2015
(1) The growth rate of major economic indicators has dropped significantly
1. The development speed is lower than the industrial average
In 2015, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than the previous year’s growth rate and 0.6 percentage points lower than the national industrial average growth rate (6.1%) during the same period. It is rare in recent years that the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is lower than the national industrial average growth rate, highlighting the seriousness of the industry situation.
2. The growth rate of main business income has dropped significantly
In 2015, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative main business income of 22.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.32% over the previous year. The growth rate was 6.09 percentage points lower than the previous year, but 2.52 percentage points higher than the national industrial growth rate (0.8%) during the same period.
3. The output of 70% of products decreased and 30% increased.
Among the 64 major mechanical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015, only 18 showed an increase in output, accounting for 28.13%, while 46 types experienced a decrease in output, accounting for 71.87%. Specific analysis shows that the output of large-scale investment products such as metallurgical mining equipment, engineering machinery, conventional power generation equipment, etc., and common mechanical products with serious overcapacity, such as various types of ordinary machine tools, AC motors, wires and cables, etc., has declined significantly; high-horsepower tractors, instruments, etc. The output of products closely related to consumption, people’s livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, and industrial upgrading, such as instruments, environmental protection equipment, electric forklifts, wind power equipment, and sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in automobiles, has continued to grow.
The output of CNC machine tools was 235,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.53%.
The output of large tractors was 77,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
The output of power generation equipment was 110 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, but the output has exceeded 100 million kilowatts for 10 consecutive years.
Automobile production and sales were 24.5033 million units and 24.5976 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.25% and 4.68% respectively. Both production and sales exceeded 24.5 million units, setting a new record high and ranking first in the world for the seventh consecutive year.
(2) The profit growth rate is lower than the main business income growth rate
In 2015, the growth rate of economic benefits of the machinery industry was lower than the growth rate of main business income, and loss-making enterprises and losses increased. The cumulative total profit realized throughout the year was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.46% over the previous year. The growth rate was 8.15 percentage points lower than the previous year and 0.86 percentage points lower than the growth rate of main business income during the same period. The main business income profit margin was 6.96%, down 0.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The total tax revenue achieved throughout the year was 886.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year; the loss rate of enterprises was 12.82%, an increase of 2.85 percentage points from the previous year; the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 19.29%.
(3) Foreign trade imports and exports both declined and the surplus increased.
In 2015, the foreign trade of the machinery industry showed a decelerating downward trend. The total import and export volume for the whole year was US$666.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.13%. Among them, imports were US$277.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.06%; exports were US$388.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%, a rare negative growth since the international financial crisis in 2009. The full-year trade surplus hit a record high of US$111 billion.
(4) The growth rate of fixed asset investment continues to decline
In 2015, the machinery industry completed a total of 4.9 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the fixed asset investment in the whole society and 1.6 percentage points higher than the manufacturing industry. It was lower than the growth rate of the machinery industry in the previous year. The growth rate has dropped by 3.02 percentage points for four consecutive years.
(5) Weak demand leads to decreased orders and continued low prices
Overcapacity and insufficient market demand for mid- to low-end products have led to declining orders for mechanical products and depressed prices. In 2015, the cumulative orders of key contact enterprises in the machinery industry continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the growth rate further declined, with a year-on-year negative growth. The cumulative year-on-year decrease from January to December was 4.02%. It is expected that weak demand will still be a problem for the machinery industry in the future. One of the important challenges.
The price index of machinery industry products continued the trend of running at a low level last year. By the end of 2015, the cumulative price index of machinery products had been below 100% for 48 consecutive months. Among the 142 major machinery products, 103 had a year-on-year decrease in cumulative price index, accounting for 72.5%.
2. Development of the machinery industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is an extraordinary period for the development of the machinery industry. Looking back over the past five years, the machinery industry has been forging ahead in a complex and difficult environment.
(1) The industry economy has developed, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the scale of the machinery industry further expanded, but the growth rate of major indicators continued to decline.
In terms of scale, total assets increased from 10.97 trillion yuan in 2010 to 19.27 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate dropped from the average annual growth rate of 23.55% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” to an average annual growth rate of 11.91%.
In terms of output, main business income increased from 13.96 trillion yuan in 2010 to 22.98 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate dropped from the average annual growth rate of 27.9% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” to an average annual growth rate of 10.48%.
In terms of efficiency, total profits increased from 1.17 trillion yuan in 2010 to 1.6 trillion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of more than 30% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%.
In terms of foreign trade, total exports increased from US$258.5 billion in 2010 to US$388.8 billion in 2015, an average annual growth rate of 8.51%; the trade surplus increased from US$3.136 billion in 2010 to US$111 billion in 2015, an increase of 35 times.
With the transition from the early to mid- to late-stage of industrialization, the future development of the machinery industry has entered a new period of slower growth.
(2) Changes in market demand structure
Different from the overall rapid growth during the “10th Five-Year Plan” and “11th Five-Year Plan”, the market demand structure has changed in various sub-sectors of the machinery industry in the late “12th Five-Year Plan”. The main sign of the change is the intensification of differentiation.
1. Products or industries related to people’s livelihood and consumption are growing rapidly
Taking main business income and profit growth as an example, products and industries that are higher than the industry average mainly include sports utility vehicles (SUVs), food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, instrumentation, environmental protection machinery, etc.
2. Industries driven mainly by investment are gradually declining.
Taking main business income and profit growth as an example, industries that are lower than the industry average are mainly engineering machinery, petrochemical general, heavy mining, and metal cutting machine tools. These industries are all typical investment product industries in the machinery industry.
The automobile industry also shows the same trend of “increasing consumption sub-sectors and declining investment sub-sectors”.
3. The production and sales situation of industries related to intelligence and green is relatively good.
The instrumentation industry, which is closely related to automation, informatization and intelligent manufacturing, maintains a rapid growth rate. The situation of UHV power transmission and transformation equipment in the electrical industry is obviously better than that of conventional products; the situation of pumped storage units is better than that of conventional hydropower units; the situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment is better than that of conventional power generation equipment.
The above changes reflect that in the context of the accelerated adjustment of my country’s economic structure, the decline in the proportion of secondary industry and the increase in the proportion of tertiary industry, the machinery industry has gradually adapted to the changes in the market demand structure and is gradually shifting from mainly serving investment activities to paying more attention to it. and tapping needs in areas such as consumption, people’s livelihood, informatization, energy conservation and emission reduction.
(3) Innovation and development have achieved remarkable results, and the pace of industrial structure adjustment has accelerated.
Against the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the ability of machinery companies to proactively adapt to market changes has continued to improve, endogenous development momentum has continued to increase, and industrial structural adjustment has continued to advance.
1. Frequent results of independent research and development appear
Breakthroughs have been made in the independent research and development of high-end equipment: large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, ultra-high voltage AC and DC and flexible DC power transmission and transformation equipment, key equipment for long-distance oil and gas pipelines, key equipment for large-scale coal chemical industry and other high-end equipment have been successfully independently developed. A 350MW supercritical boiler powered by Zhundong coal has been successfully developed and put into engineering application, which is of great significance to Xinjiang’s economic development.
The results of the localization of high-end control systems are gratifying: the localization of DCS control systems for process industries, which has long been restricted by imports, has achieved results. The market share of domestic DCS systems has surpassed that of foreign-invested products, and it has the strength to participate in international competition.
2. The development of the “three basics” fields continues to advance
Progress has been made in the localization of a number of key basic parts and core components that have long relied on imports. The localization level of high-voltage insulating bushings, transformer outlet devices, high-quality cold-rolled silicon steel sheets, large-scale power station forgings, high-temperature gas turbine blades, large-scale nuclear static sealing devices, high-pressure valves for excavators, high-end bearings, LNG low-temperature and high-pressure cast ball valves, etc. has been significantly improved. .
3. Innovation supports development
Attention has been paid to the construction of industry innovation capabilities, and investment in basic testing and testing capacity building has increased significantly: progress has been made in the construction of basic testing and testing platforms that restrict new product development, including large compressor test benches, water wheel model test benches, and power station safety valve test benches. Other platforms have been built one after another, and a few areas (such as high current and high voltage test capabilities) have reached the advanced level of the world’s peers.
The pace of collaborative innovation is accelerating: Machinery companies, user companies, and scientific research institutes are cooperating more closely and frequently in areas such as equipment R&D and process innovation. The cooperation model has been innovative, and cooperative research and development has achieved remarkable results.
4. Private enterprises’ contribution to industry development continues to increase
In 2015, private enterprises achieved main business income of 13.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.48%, which was 3.16 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the entire machinery industry, accounting for 59.05% of the main business income of the machinery industry. Compared with 2010 The proportion increased by 7.79 percentage points; the total realized profit was 886 billion yuan, accounting for 55.4% of the profits realized by the machinery industry, an increase of 8.94 percentage points from 2010.
5. Regional structure continues to adjust in the expected direction
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the regional structure of the machinery industry continued to adjust in the direction expected by the policy. In 2015, the main business income of the eastern, central and western regions accounted for 65.02%, 24.02% and 10.96% of the total revenue of the machinery industry respectively, of which the proportion of the central and western regions increased by 5.52 percentage points compared with 2010; among the total profits, the proportion of the central and western regions increased by 5.52 percentage points. The proportion also increased from 30.82% in 2010 to 33.29% in 2015.
6. Extension expansion slows down and investment structure improves
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry slowed down year by year, from 30.35% in 2010 to 9.7% in 2015, indicating that the industry’s early rapid expansion trend has significantly slowed down. At the same time, the investment structure has improved. In 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in reconstruction and technological transformation was 9.02 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industry investment. In terms of proportion, investment in reconstruction and technological transformation accounted for 27.9% of the total investment in the machinery industry in 2015, an increase of 7.43 percentage points from 2010.
7. Optimization of foreign trade structure
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the foreign trade export structure of the machinery industry continued to be optimized, and the supporting role of general trade in the industry’s exports was increasing. The proportion of general trade exports in total exports increased from 52.3% in 2010 to 60.51% in 2015, an increase of 8.21 percentage points; the general trade balance changed from a deficit of US$27.436 billion to a surplus of US$50.564 billion.
8. Actively explore new paths for transformation and development
Intelligent manufacturing and “Internet +” have begun to take off. Automatic production lines, digital workshops, modern logistics, etc. have formed a certain scale in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions; traditional engineering machinery manufacturing companies and agricultural machinery manufacturing companies have launched “Internet +” attempts to open up new markets.
New business formats and new models are constantly emerging. The financial leasing marketing model has begun to be explored in a number of complete projects such as metallurgy and mining; emerging business models such as agricultural machinery e-commerce have begun to be applied; the transformation of traditional enterprises into the manufacturing service industry continues to advance.
In short, in the past five years, the machinery industry has actively adjusted and adapted, and strived to explore innovative development paths in the new normal.
3. Prospects for the Economic Operation of the Machinery Industry in 2016
2016 is the first year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, marking that my country’s machinery industry has stood at a new starting point for development. It should be noted that due to changes in the domestic and international economic environment, the contradictions and problems faced by the machinery industry will become more complex, and the tasks of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading will become more arduous. Despite this, the machinery industry still has favorable factors for steady progress. First, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified the economic policy tone of “seeking progress while maintaining stability” and emphasized the main tasks of “cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing costs, making up for shortcomings, and improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system”, and It releases information on maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies, which is conducive to the machinery industry’s promotion of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. Second, “Made in China 2025” and related supporting policies have been introduced one after another, pointing out the direction and providing policy support for the long-term development and short-term adjustment of the machinery industry. Third, industry associations are cooperating with relevant national departments to study policy measures and suggestions for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, transforming and upgrading, reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the machinery industry, and strive to work from both sides of supply and demand to stimulate demand, promote applications, promote innovation, and make up for shortcomings. We will strengthen the foundation, adjust the structure, lay a solid foundation, optimize the environment, and increase efficiency to provide a good policy environment for the development of the machinery industry and boost the confidence and determination of the entire industry.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the machinery industry in 2016 is expected to continue its low and stable trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and the annual growth rate will be similar to that in 2015. Specifically, it is expected that all